Russia, which surprised the market with its japan telegram data decision to keep the key rate unchanged despite expectations of its significant increase, has restarted discussions about problems in communication and possible pressure on the solution of external factors. The Central Bank is distancing itself from the latter, and on the former, it is telling market participants that they did not fully take into account the signals that the regulator gave shortly before the decision. In an interview with Interfax, Andrey Gangan, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Bank of Russia, spoke about the discrepancy between expectations and actual actions, about factors not taken into account by the market, about inflation and economic growth forecasts.
—Just recently, the Central Bank admitted t
hat at the beginning of the year it made a mistake in communications, allowing a feeling of an imminent easing of policy to form. And you actively corrected this mistake, gave the market “hawkish” signals and continued to do so literally a couple of weeks before the December council. Hence the unambiguous expectations of a rate hike, and the consensus at +2 p.p. It turns out that you “overdid it” now in the other direction, giving tough signals?
To be fair, I would like to note that although
our signal after the October decision content creators should focus more on sounded like “we admit the possibility of raising the rate,” both the chairman and other representatives of the Central Bank have repeatedly emphasized that “the decision is not predetermined.” Precisely america email because the situation with monetary conditions has begun to change rapidly in the last two months.