We see a slowdown in credit, which in the malaysia telegram data transmission of our decisions reacts earlier than demand. There are also point indicators that signal a certain cooling of consumer activity. By the way, we also see this in the framework of the exchange of operational information with enterprises and business associations.
In general, the situation where the market did not know about some factors that you took into account in your decision is clearly not very good from a communication point of view. What is the probability that the same situation could repeat itself in February and beyond? You talked about plans to improve communication. Maybe you already have ideas on how to explain your next steps more firmly and clearly?
Such situations arise when there are some
sharp and unexpected changes, turning points in the dynamics of individual indicators.
It is clear that the Bank of Russia, like almost any central bank, will always have a little more information about the dynamics of the banking sector indicators, but in a normal situation this difference is only in the depth and detail of this data, while information about general indicators and trends is, as a rule, equally accessible to both the central bank and market participants. As soon as we had the first data on the November dynamics of the loan portfolio, we immediately gave it to the market, i.e. earlier than usual.
Time the situation has been developing
very quickly over the last six weeks, and we did not have standard tools that would allow us to quickly broadcast any new data to the outside world. In these sources include smart sensors and surveillance cameras addition, we received some data already during the “week of silence”, essentially online.
Of the information we had and the market did not have, I would note the data on the dynamics of lending as of December 15, the so-called five-day periods. But we deliberately do not publish this data. They have very high intra-month america email seasonality and volatility. The publication of such high-frequency data may lead to their incorrect interpretation. Under normal conditions, such promptness, I am afraid, would do more harm than good. Therefore, we do not plan to disclose this data.